Reading Current Events

If you all want something to debate and rage on, how about... The Canadian Federal Election!

Seriously though, consider the questions:

Could Paul Martin, after waiting in the wings for more than twenty years for his chance at the big chair, actually lose the election, ending eleven long years of Liberal dominence?

Does the NDP matter again?

Will the Bloc rebound in Quebec?

Can Steven Harper finally unite the right, and stop the old extremist elements of the Reform party from scaring away the popular vote?

Can Harper be placed in the same category as the doomed Stockwell Day, or will he prove more durable?

Should Layton continue his outlandish claims and flamboyant style, or is he damaging an already weak reputation?

Is the possibility of a minority government good for democracy, or will shady dealings and political backstabbing take over the House of Commons?

Will the Green party EVER win a seat?

I have to figure out which party I should influence my voting-age friends to vote for...

But I can't find no place or nothin', where thrills are cheap, and love is divine

I don't know nearly as much about politics in our neighbour of the North, but it sounds to me like this round of elections, at every level, is pretty serious. I've heard a few things about vandalism, and apparently Mills and Layton's wife got into some kind of screaming argument? As for Layton hisownself, I'd like to see him do what it takes to make sure that liberals stay in power, no matter how much of an imbecile he makes himself look. It's a risk I'm willing to take.

Thbbbbt

it sounds to me like this round of elections, at every level, is pretty serious.

It could be, yes. Hopefully the mudslinging and character attacks can be kept to a minimum. There's a lot at stake this time around.

I didn't hear about the Layton's wife thing... but then, the NDP doesn't exactly get a ton of media coverage compared to the big two.

Do Canadian political events get any coverage outside of Canada? My impression is that they don't really...

But I can't find no place or nothin', where thrills are cheap, and love is divine

Most political events don't get covered in America, unless you dig for them. What I know, I've picked up from the CBC's website (www.cbc.ca).

Thbbbbt

Will the Green party EVER win a seat?

Dude, let's stay realistic. :-P

"*sigh* Some men are really hard to manipulate!" - Orchid

"This is Peter Mansbridge reporting. Well, a huge shock at the polls today, as the Green party captured a stunning minority victory. An allience with the Marijuana party to form a majority is expected, given the condition that every McDonalds in the country is converted to a Mind Expansion Centre by the end of the year..."

There really is a Marijuana Party... but beyond that...

But I can't find no place or nothin', where thrills are cheap, and love is divine

Could Paul Martin, after waiting in the wings for more than twenty years for his chance at the big chair, actually lose the election, ending eleven long years of Liberal dominence?

There is a chance, but the most likely victor would be the Conservative party. One of the previous leaders was the Rt. Hon. Brian Mulroney, who has a reputation of letting the debt slide well out of control.

Does the NDP matter again?

As long as the NDP reached official party status, they can have an influence in the matters of government. The small offical parties are very powerful in minority governments, as it requires the elected party to consult the opposition to get new laws and regulations passed (especially the budget.)

Will the Bloc rebound in Quebec?

Probably. The Bloc is primairly focused around maintaining the interests of Quebec, and is generally popular. Even if they won't rebound this election, they will always be around.

Can Steven Harper finally unite the right, and stop the old extremist elements of the Reform party from scaring away the popular vote?

Mabye - however, the previous attempt at the "Canadian Alliance" party resulted in twelve MPs breaking off, forming their own party, and eventually joining with the conservatives.

The united right will fail if the same methods are used to keep MPs in line. I doubt it will hold, mainly because of some backlash within the Conservative party caused by the marger between the two paries.

Can Harper be placed in the same category as the doomed Stockwell Day, or will he prove more durable?

Harper does look much more durable than Stockwell. As you know, 22 Minutes congradulated Stockwell on his long career in politics, as well as being a never-ending source of humour...

Should Layton continue his outlandish claims and flamboyant style, or is he damaging an already weak reputation?

The NDP is generally a minor party. While they do appear in government as an official party, there is a very limited chance that they will get in government. I haven't heard too many bad things about them, but socialist parties aren't always that popular.

I also have a second reason to doubt the NDP will be popular. Within the last couple of elections, I have always received a brochure from the local Liberal candidate claiming that he is suited for the job. The other parties haven't done the same to any noticable extent, and usually rely on the Internet and Television.

Is the possibility of a minority government good for democracy, or will shady dealings and political backstabbing take over the House of Commons?

Minority governmetns are good for democracy, as long as it does not enter a perputal deadlock.

Also, majority governments aren't always that bad. Shady dealings and political backstabbing will always appear in government, regardless of which party is in power, and by how much they are in control. In fact, a significant number of problems cropped up at either a slightly lower level, whether they were a shady dealing, a management error, or an administrator fining a creative way to embessle fundings.

Will the Green party EVER win a seat?

No, but they do have enough popular vote to be noticable. While I might not agree with some of their stances, they do have a good plan to get things working. They also have enough of a popluar vote to actually be noticable for an election.

Also, it is extremely difficult for a person outside of the five major parties to get elected - the only one to recently do so would be John Nunziata, and that was because he successfully represented the interests of his riding over the interests of the Liberal Party.

One of the previous leaders was the Rt. Hon. Brian Mulroney, who has a reputation of letting the debt slide well out of control.

As well as a reputation for a thousand other horrible things... I guess I would've had to be around when he was in power, but I think people maybe demonize him a little more than he deserves. I wish he hadn't been such a lap dog for Reagan though...

it requires the elected party to consult the opposition to get new laws and regulations passed (especially the budget.)

As the Rt. Hon. Joe Clark found out the hard way. :-p

The Bloc is primairly focused around maintaining the interests of Quebec, and is generally popular. Even if they won't rebound this election, they will always be around.

You're right I think. They've done a decent job "Seperating" themselves from their old one-track agenda.

22 Minutes congradulated Stockwell on his long career in politics, as well as being a never-ending source of humour...

:-) He was that.

I wish 22 Minutes would get Mercer back. It hasn't been the same since he left.

The other parties haven't done the same to any noticable extent, and usually rely on the Internet and Television.

None of the other parties have the same financial resources as the Grits. It's insane how much they spend campaigning.

majority governments aren't always that bad.

I guess not. My only gripe with the Liberals is their seeming complacence on a number of key issues, where they are, or were with Chretien at least, unwilling to take decisive action.

But on the other hand, I don't share the Conservative values, and I am worried about their stance on foreign policy. For example, I don't personally believe that there should be a conflict between being a close economic partner to the U.S., and having a different stand on issues such as Iraq.

the only one to recently do so would be John Nunziata

Whatever happened to him? Did he retire?

But I can't find no place or nothin', where thrills are cheap, and love is divine

Whatever happened to him? Did he retire?

He's still in politics, but no longer in the federal parliment.

Last thing I know, he was a municipal candidate for mayor - there doesn't seem to be too much information on if he did succeed, but he's probably popular enough to reach at least second place.

Well, I just watched the "great" debate a few minutes ago on CTV. My opinion of the candidates (from left to right):

1. Steven Harper is making claims of the Liberal government being unaccountable. However, there wasn't that much information given by that party on any reasons to vote for them. There was also a stab against Mr. Harper's party, by stating that they removed the word "Progressive" from the name.

2. Rt. Hon. Paul Martin was noticably stuttering on some of the questions - indicating some form of thinking or uncertainty. Hw also did not adress the critical issues with the sponsership scandel (although it doesn't affect me as much, since I see it as more of an administrative issue that can occurr with any party.)

3. Jack Layton seemed to come across well enough. However, some of the ideas presented by the party were not elaborated correctly in the debate - for example, he said that proportional representation would increase the number of women in politics, which isn't automatically the case. (I suspect this to be a problem with the culture of the previous generations discouraging women from activly participating on government. )

4. Gilles Duceppe seemed to come across well enough for representing the interests of Quebec, as well as managing to poke holes in the Liberal and Coservative party plans. There were arguments between the NDP and BQ, but those only occurred within the 1-on-1 debates rather than the free-for-all.

P.S. to Bunk: I don't like the Sens, mainly because they aren't as good as they used to be. While they could block certain knee-jerk bills from going through, that portion of government generally rubber stamps things through as a simple tradition rather than because the laws are actually useful without modification.

I will add my thoughts.

Harper presented a far more competent and composed debate than ol' Stockboy Day did way back when. But I tend to agree with Martin that chances are if elected they will get in, see the real numbers, be totally disorganised and end up being forced to break some of their loftier promises.

Martin seemed to kind of have confidence but not inspire confidence. He dodged some questions, talked a lot to the camera as opposed to the other leaders, and seemed a little shaky at times. His best point was when he mentioned Harper's letter to the Wall Street Journal... if that story is true, Harper has lost any chance at my support in the future. But overall I found the way he kept saying "the fact is" and "fundamentally" got annoying after a while.

Layton made a good impression (on me at least). He seemed to be thoroughly enjoying his participation, which is a good thing. He made an excellent point in criticising Martin's declaration that it was a two party choice for all of Canada. But on the other hand, it is mostly talk for him at this point.

Duceppe had the aire of someone who had been there before, and except for a couple dodgy moments, his greater experience was clear. I agree he represented Quebec well, and most of the time him and Layton were in violent agreement.

P.S. to Bunk: I don't like the Sens, mainly because they aren't as good as they used to be. While they could block certain knee-jerk bills from going through, that portion of government generally rubber stamps things through as a simple tradition rather than because the laws are actually useful without modification.

:) I must agree with you there. But I certainly hate having a whole bunch of... Leaves, lying around on my lawn, old and unless, waiting to be raked away at the beginning of the next season. I hear it takes them at least 38 years and counting for them to fully decompose.

But I can't find no place or nothin', where thrills are cheap, and love is divine

This post was edited by Bunk on Jun 16, 2004.

Well the election has come and gone at last.

Result (seats):

Liberals 135 (minority government winners)
Conservatives 99
Bloc Quebecois 54
New Democratic Party 19
Independent 1

Not exactly the nail-biter people expected; the end of this, a campaign largely viewed as negative and partisan, was dampened by the lowest voter turnout in history, around 60%. *sigh* Oh well.

It appeared that at least part of the mainstream right was scared away by Harper, allowing Martin to claim the hard fought minority. If working with the NDP and the Independent, the liberals can get a majority vote in parliment, whereas a Conservative-Bloc-Independent coalition would fall just short. The whole thing is, on the surface, rather unstable. However, since parliment won't be reconvening till September, and all parties seem to have exausted their campaign cash, not to mention a dis-enchanted public that would react negatively to another election, it's quite possible that nearly nothing could be going on for some time. Ah, beauro- I mean, Democracy, isn't it wonderful?

But I can't find no place or nothin', where thrills are cheap, and love is divine

The popular vote, for those who are interested (not that it matters in a confederation):

Liberal: 36.7% (4951,107)
Conservative: 29.6% (3,3994,682)
N.D.P: 15.7% (2,116,536)
Bloc Quebecois: 12.4% (1,672,184)
Green Party: 4.3% (580,816)
Christian Heritage party: 0.3% (40,283)
Marijuana Party: 0.3% (33,590)
PC Party: 0.1% (10,773)
Marxist-leninist: 0.1% (9,065)
Canadian Action: 0.1% (8,930)
Communist: 0.0% (4,568)
Libertarian: 0.0% (1,964)

Independent: 0.4% (47,596)
No Affiliation: 0.1% (17,465)

Total votes: 13,489,559

The green party appears have been gaining momentum recently. They haven't been taken seriously by Elections canada yet, but they seem to be close to breaking the magical 5% mark.

About 1.3% of the votes went to the various fringe parties. Seems just about right for voters that are generally not interested in the current mainstream parties, although it does feel like it's on the low side at the time.

It appeared that at least part of the mainstream right was scared away by Harper, allowing Martin to claim the hard fought minority. If working with the NDP and the Independent, the liberals can get a majority vote in parliment, whereas a Conservative-Bloc-Independent coalition would fall just short.

At first, I thought that would be true. However, the Liberals have to elect a speaker of the house who doesn't generally vote - bringing their voting strength to 134. A Liberal-NDP colition would bring it up to 153. The conservatives and Bloc Quebesoic have 153 votes combined in order to oppose the Liberals (if necessairy).

In this case, there would generally be a deadlock, where neither side can consistantly get bills passed. The only way things can get through is by controlling the independant MP, and he may side with either party at the time.

As always, parliment will close again after four years or so. The problem then is with the big pile of dirty leaves that blows right into parliement after each general election.

This post was edited by Sigma_7 on Jul 03, 2004.

Hmm... fascinating stuff.

I think the highlight of the CBC election coverage was when, for five short minutes, the Marxist-Leninist party was leading the poll count for one riding. Mansbridge didn't know whether to wind his ass or wipe his watch.

1.3% of the votes went to the various fringe parties.

it does feel like it's on the low side at the time.

Ask the 9 million who didn't vote what their second choice was, besides abstinence. Some people's lazyness astounds me. And they can't say it's because "There were no options". There's tons of options, just look at the list. It bugs me, listening to them on CBC talking to that reporter (I forget his name) trying to make up excuses to hide their ignorance... 'mumble mumble'

As always, parliment will close again after four years or so. The problem then is with the big pile of dirty leaves that blows right into parliement after each general election.

... you're really confusing me now... don't make me send you to St. Louis!

But I can't find no place or nothin', where thrills are cheap, and love is divine